Inference in discrete graphical models with variational methods is difficult because of the inability to re-parameterize gradients of the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). Many sampling-based methods have been proposed for estimating these gradients, but they suffer from high bias or variance. In this paper, we propose a new approach that leverages the tractability of probabilistic circuit models, such as Sum Product Networks (SPN), to compute ELBO gradients exactly (without sampling) for a certain class of densities. In particular, we show that selective-SPNs are suitable as an expressive variational distribution, and prove that when the log-density of the target model is a polynomial the corresponding ELBO can be computed analytically. To scale to graphical models with thousands of variables, we develop an efficient and effective construction of selective-SPNs with size O(kn), where n is the number of variables and k is an adjustable hyperparameter. We demonstrate our approach on three types of graphical models - Ising models, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, and factor graphs from the UAI Inference Competition. Selective-SPNs give a better lower bound than mean-field and structured mean-field, and is competitive with approximations that do not provide a lower bound, such as Loopy Belief Propagation and Tree-Reweighted Belief Propagation. Our results show that probabilistic circuits are promising tools for variational inference in discrete graphical models as they combine tractability and expressivity.

Inference in discrete graphical models with variational methods is difficult because of the inability to re-parameterize gradients of the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). Many sampling-based methods have been proposed for estimating these gradients, but they suffer from high bias or variance. In this paper, we propose a new approach that leverages the tractability of probabilistic circuit models, such as Sum Product Networks (SPN), to compute ELBO gradients exactly (without sampling) for a certain class of densities. In particular, we show that selective-SPNs are suitable as an expressive variational distribution, and prove that when the log-density of the target model is a polynomial the corresponding ELBO can be computed analytically. To scale to graphical models with thousands of variables, we develop an efficient and effective construction of selective-SPNs with size (O(kn)), where (n) is the number of variables and (k) is an adjustable hyperparameter. We demonstrate our approach on three types of graphical models -- Ising models, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, and factor graphs from the UAI Inference Competition. Selective-SPNs give a better lower bound than mean-field and structured mean-field, and is competitive with approximations that do not provide a lower bound, such as Loopy Belief Propagation and Tree-Reweighted Belief Propagation. Our results show that probabilistic circuits are promising tools for variational inference in discrete graphical models as they combine tractability and expressivity.

Controlled language generation conditions text on sequence-level constraints (for example, syntax, style, or safety). These constraints may depend on future tokens, which makes directly conditioning an autoregressive language model (LM) generally intractable. Prior work uses tractable surrogates such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) to approximate the distribution over continuations and adjust the model's next-token logits at decoding time. However, we find that these surrogates are often weakly context aware, which reduces query quality. We propose Learning to Look Ahead (LTLA), a hybrid approach that pairs the same base language model for rich prefix encoding with a fixed tractable surrogate model that computes exact continuation probabilities. Two efficiency pitfalls arise when adding neural context: (i) naively rescoring the prefix with every candidate next token requires a sweep over the entire vocabulary at each step, and (ii) predicting fresh surrogate parameters for each prefix, although tractable at a single step, forces recomputation of future probabilities for every new prefix and eliminates reuse. LTLA avoids both by using a single batched HMM update to account for all next-token candidates at once, and by conditioning only the surrogate's latent state prior on the LM's hidden representations while keeping the surrogate decoder fixed, so computations can be reused across prefixes. Empirically, LTLA attains higher conditional likelihood than an unconditional HMM, approximates continuation distributions for vision-language models where a standalone HMM cannot encode visual context, and improves constraint satisfaction at comparable fluency on controlled-generation tasks, with minimal inference overhead.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a widely used class of probabilistic graphical models employed in numerous application domains. However, inferring the network's graphical structure from data remains challenging. Bayesian structure learners approach this problem by inferring a posterior distribution over the possible directed acyclic graphs underlying the BN. The inference process often requires marginalizing over probability distributions, which is typically done using dynamic programming methods that restrict the set of possible parents for each node. Instead, we present a novel method that utilizes tractable probabilistic circuits to circumvent this restriction. This method utilizes a new learning routine that trains these circuits on both the original distribution and marginal queries. The architecture of probabilistic circuits then inherently allows for fast and exact marginalization on the learned distribution. We then show empirically that utilizing our method to answer marginals allows Bayesian structure learners to improve their performance compared to current methods.

Multi-token prediction (MTP) is a prominent strategy to significantly speed up generation in large language models (LLMs), including byte-level LLMs, which are tokeniser-free but prohibitively slow. However, existing MTP methods often sacrifice expressiveness by assuming independence between future tokens. In this work, we investigate the trade-off between expressiveness and latency in MTP within the framework of probabilistic circuits (PCs). Our framework, named MTPC, allows one to explore different ways to encode the joint distributions over future tokens by selecting different circuit architectures, generalising classical models such as (hierarchical) mixture models, hidden Markov models and tensor networks. We show the efficacy of MTPC by retrofitting existing byte-level LLMs, such as EvaByte. Our experiments show that, when combined with speculative decoding, MTPC significantly speeds up generation compared to MTP with independence assumptions, while guaranteeing to retain the performance of the original verifier LLM. We also rigorously study the optimal trade-off between expressiveness and latency when exploring the possible parameterisations of MTPC, such as PC architectures and partial layer sharing between the verifier and draft LLMs.

A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of certain queries while maintaining expressivity. In particular, probabilistic circuits (PCs) provide a unifying framework for many TPMs, by characterizing families of models as circuits satisfying different structural properties. Because the complexity of inference on PCs is a function of the circuit size, understanding the size requirements of different families of PCs is fundamental in mapping the trade-off between tractability and expressive efficiency. However, the study of expressive efficiency of circuits are often concerned with exact representations, which may not align with model learning, where we look to approximate the underlying data distribution closely by some distance measure. Moreover, due to hardness of inference tasks, exactly representing distributions while supporting tractable inference often incurs exponential size blow-ups. In this paper, we consider a natural, yet so far underexplored, question: can we avoid such size blow-up by allowing for some small approximation error? We study approximating distributions with probabilistic circuits with guarantees based on $f$-divergences, and analyze which inference queries remain well-approximated under this framework. We show that approximating an arbitrary distribution with bounded $f$-divergence is $\mathsf{NP}$-hard for any model that can tractably compute marginals. In addition, we prove an exponential size gap for approximation between the class of decomposable PCs and that of decomposable and deterministic PCs.